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Manchester United have performed as the third-best team in the Premier League under Michael Carrick, but underlying statistical data indicates that their previous success was built on unsustainable fortune. During Carrick’s tenure, only Arsenal and Manchester City have produced more points than United’s 46.
Unraveling Past Overperformance
United’s strong finish last season obscured pertinent facts, with the team currently sitting 16th and winless in eight games across all competitions. While Carrick can point to a degree of misfortune this season, such as conceding stoppage-time equalisers to Everton and Tottenham, Opta’s expected points model suggests United have earned 3.8 fewer points than their underlying performances merit in 2026-27.
However, that regression was an inevitable outcome after United outperformed their expected points by 12.7 during Carrick’s share of the 2025-26 season, which was 7.6 more than any other club. A large portion of their 12 league victories last season were narrow, single-goal wins where coin-flips went in their favour despite unfavorable expected goal margins.
Tactical Shortcomings and Ball Dominance
United’s current struggles stem from an inability to break down opponents when dominating possession, mirroring challenges faced by former manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær. While United secured victories in big matches last season with low possession shares, they have struggled against lower-tier sides this season despite holding the majority of the ball.
Although United lead the division in total shots, a high proportion of their efforts come from outside the penalty area, resulting in the second-worst non-penalty expected goals per shot average in the Premier League. This tactical blueprint drew questioning from captain Bruno Fernandes following a defeat against Como, to which Carrick responded by highlighting running metrics.
Physical Output and Intensity Drops
Data from Gradient Sports indicates that United’s outfield players are averaging fewer sprints per 90 minutes this season compared to Carrick’s tenure last year. While an increase in average possession from 49.1% last season to 56.7% this term may partially explain the drop, other top-tier clubs manage higher possession alongside increased sprinting rates.
Whether the intensity has dropped due to player effort or the loss of free midweeks following Champions League qualification, the favorable circumstances of last season have disappeared. Without those advantages, Carrick faces mounting pressure as he attempts to navigate a far more challenging campaign.
