Table of Content
- Samuel Sanches vs. Evan Elder
- Alatengheili vs. Juan Diaz
- Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita
- Melquizael Costa vs. Jared Gordon
- Donte Johnson vs. Cesar Almeida
- Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney
- Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan
- Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke
- Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule
- Uros Medic vs. Kevin Holland
- Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui
- Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes
- Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit
Sports betting analyst Sean Zerillo breaks down the odds, prop bets, and predictions for every fight on the UFC 334 card at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The numbered event features a stacked lineup of matchups with odds provided via DraftKings.
Samuel Sanches vs. Evan Elder
Samuel Sanches enters his Octagon debut at 23 years old following a quick win on the Contender Series. He faces Evan Elder, who has won three consecutive fights after an opening skid in the UFC but has not competed in roughly 19 months. Elder starts quickly, winning the vast majority of his first and second rounds, but his striking differential drops significantly in the third round. Sanches is six years younger, holds a two-inch reach advantage, and features quicker and more powerful hands. Zerillo projects Sanches as a 58.2% favorite and recommends betting his moneyline to -130, alongside a live bet on Sanches after the opening round if Elder begins to fade.
Alatengheili vs. Juan Diaz
Alatengheili takes this bout on short notice following a controversial split-decision victory over John Castaneda. Known for high durability, the veteran has never been stopped in the promotion, though he is frequently outlanded by opponents. He faces Juan Diaz, who is taller, younger, and well-rounded after a dominant submission win in his UFC debut. Zerillo projects Diaz at -385 and sees slight betting value in a small wager on Diaz to win by decision at +100 up to -110.
Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita
IBJJF Hall-of-Famer Bia Mesquita is undefeated in three UFC appearances with three submission finishes. She meets Macy Chiasson, who has dropped three consecutive decisions. Chiasson possesses a major size and reach advantage but struggles significantly when forced onto her back. Mesquita has controlled opponents for more than half her total UFC fight time, though her cardio beyond the second round remains untested in mixed martial arts. Zerillo projects Mesquita as a 73% favorite and suggests betting her -7.5 point spread at -160 and over 1.5 takedowns at even money.
Melquizael Costa vs. Jared Gordon
Melquizael Costa moves up from featherweight to face Jared Gordon following a decision loss to Arnold Allen. Costa is eight years younger and holds a three-inch reach advantage, utilizing body kicks to set up head strikes. Gordon holds a strong grappling edge, having controlled opponents for over a third of his career fight time. Zerillo projects Costa at -281, identifying value on the underdog point spread at +3.5 while highlighting Gordon as a prime live target if he drops the opening round.
Donte Johnson vs. Cesar Almeida
Donte Johnson is undefeated in three UFC appearances, coming off a first-round knockout of Eric McConico. He meets Cesar Almeida, who has dropped two straight fights, including a knockout loss in July. Almeida is taller and older, operating as a technical kickboxer, but his durability has been a concern with knockout losses in half of his promotional bouts. Johnson holds the grappling advantage, and Zerillo points to Johnson’s takedown prop of over 0.5 as a strong betting option at -135.
Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney competes in explosive bouts where 86% of his professional fights conclude in the opening round. He meets veteran Jim Miller, who will make his 48th walk to the Octagon at age 43. McKinney is taller, younger, and dangerous on the feet, but possesses porous head defense and struggles with conditioning in longer fights. Miller presents a constant submission threat with extensive experience. Zerillo projects McKinney to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +170 and suggests a same-game parlay combining a McKinney knockout with under 0.5 rounds.
Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan enters after a main event loss to Renato Moicano, while Drew Dober has won two straight fights by knockout. Dober boasts a strong track record against southpaws, securing all five of his victories against them by stoppage. Duncan holds advantages in youth, height, reach, grappling volume, and late-round cardio. Zerillo projects Duncan close to the market price and highlights value on Duncan’s over 1.5 takedowns prop at +100, alongside a small wager on Duncan to win by decision at +470.
Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson fights in his retirement bout at age 43, looking to snap a three-fight losing skid following a lengthy layoff. He meets Charles Radtke, who has won two consecutive bouts and relies heavily on a grappling-heavy style. Thompson remains a difficult target at distance with elite striking volume that increases in later rounds, but his historical vulnerability to takedowns presents a clear path for Radtke. Zerillo projects the line closely and recommends Radtke at +3.5 points (-150) and Radtke to win by decision at +400.
Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule
Bilal Hasan is undefeated with a stoppage win in his lone UFC appearance. He faces Luis Gurule, who holds a 1-4 promotional record and faces a quick turnaround. Hasan holds significant advantages in height, reach, and age as a switch-stance striker who controls range effectively. Because the market has priced Hasan heavily as a steep favorite, Zerillo recommends passing on the matchup.
Uros Medic vs. Kevin Holland
Uros Medic has never gone to a decision in his professional career, riding four consecutive first-round knockouts. He faces Kevin Holland, who is larger, possesses a massive ten-inch reach advantage, and proves exceptionally difficult to finish. Medic excels as a fast-starting southpaw, while Holland brings a submission threat and veteran savvy. Zerillo projects value on Holland to cover the +7.5 point spread at -110, win by decision at +1075, and for the fight to reach a decision at +400.
Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui
Caio Borralho has won eight of his nine UFC bouts, facing Yousri Belgaroui, who is undefeated in three promotional appearances with three knockouts. Belgaroui is taller and serves as the superior kickboxer with immense finishing power, while Borralho relies on elite durability and wrestling control. Borralho has shown a tendency to drift away from his takedowns in recent outings, but Zerillo suggests a wager on Borralho to land over 1.5 takedowns at -150 to neutralize the striking threat.
Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes returns from a 41-month retirement to challenge bantamweight titleholder Kayla Harrison. Harrison is undefeated in the UFC with dominant grappling performances, while Nunes stands as a legendary striker with exceptional knockout power and extensive championship experience. Both athletes boast strong credentials, but the matchup creates a distinct clash between Harrison’s Olympic-level judo and Nunes’ elite striking. Zerillo targets the distance prop at +150 and Nunes to win by decision at +500.
Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit
Ciryl Gane faces Josh Hokit in the event’s heavyweight matchup, with Gane projected as a strong betting favorite. Hokit will need to rely on wrestling to counter Gane’s striking volume, as Gane’s takedown defense has historically been vulnerable against elite grapplers. Gane has outlanded every UFC opponent he has faced and excels in the championship rounds. Zerillo targets statistical props for the main event, recommending Josh Hokit over 1.5 takedowns at -105 and Ciryl Gane over 62.5 significant strikes at -115.
