Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, takes over a 4-5 Las Vegas Raiders team after the franchise traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota for a third-round pick. Mendoza is set to make his first career start Sunday against the Seahawks, following historical paths similar to past rookies like Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson.
Historical Precedents of Midseason Rookies
According to data from TruMedia cited by CBS Sports Headlines, 148 quarterbacks have started at least one game as NFL rookies since 2000, with just 22 making their initial start between Weeks 10 and 13. Historically, this group struggled in their debuts, completing 53.8% of their passes, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt, and throwing interceptions on 5.3% of dropbacks—the worst marks among all rookie starting intervals. Only five of those 22 won their debuts, and their interception rate exceeded 1.6 times that of rookies who started in Week 1.
Team records also shifted after making the midseason change. Five teams with winning records entering a rookie’s debut went a combined 10-20 afterward, while 17 teams with losing records improved slightly from a 28.9% winning percentage to 33.7%. Only three of those 22 squads ultimately reached the playoffs, highlighted by the 2011 Texans with T.J. Yates and the 2017 Bills briefly turning to Nathan Peterman.
In contrast, Lamar Jackson replaced an injured Joe Flacco in 2018 for a 4-5 Ravens team and transformed the offense with his rushing ability, winning six of his first seven starts. Meanwhile, Jared Goff lost all seven of his starts in 2016 after replacing Case Keenum on a 4-5 Rams team before eventually developing into a star under Sean McVay.
Tough Schedule and Surrounding Challenges
Mendoza faces a difficult opening stretch with games against Seattle, Denver, and Cleveland—three of the league’s top defenses. While the schedule lightens following a Week 13 bye, matchups against the Broncos and Chiefs still loom in the final four weeks.
The broader roster concerns extend beyond the rookie quarterback. Before his departure, Cousins threw 20 touchdowns with eight interceptions, and the passing offense ranked fifth in yards per game alongside ninth in EPA per play. However, Las Vegas ranks dead last in yards per carry at 2.9, 31st in rushing yards per game at 71.3, and 30th in rushing success rate, while the defense has surrendered 35.7 points per game over their last six contests.
Mendoza enters the league after being evaluated as potentially the most NFL-ready quarterback in his class, though situated in a challenging environment. Over his remaining eight games, Mendoza aims to establish his presence, while the organization faces the task of building adequate support around him for future success, similar to how Detroit supported Goff and Baltimore tailored its system for Jackson.
