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Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors will meet former teammate Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. ET as both teams enter the matchup with matching 8-3 records. New users can utilize the Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to claim a $25 bonus after depositing $10 or more. The SportsLine Projection Model simulates the game 10,000 times, heading into Week 4 of the 2026-27 season on a 28-12 run on top-rated picks.
Rockets Look to Protect Home Court
Houston is playing the second of three straight home games after defeating Denver 110-100 on Monday, a contest where Durant paced the team with 23 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. Alperen Sengun added 20 points and 12 boards as the Rockets outrebounded the Nuggets 51-39 and made 14 3-pointers. The Rockets currently surrender the fifth-fewest points in the league, allowing five fewer points than Golden State, and win in 65% of the SportsLine model simulations.
On Polymarket, a Houston victory trades at 70%, while a win by more than 6.5 points trades at 49% (with “No” at 52%).
Warriors Open Six-Game Road Trip
Golden State arrives behind Curry, who ranks second in the league in scoring at 30.6 points per game and shot 45.6% from beyond the arc this season. Curry led the team with 25 points in just 21 minutes during a 138-87 rout of New Orleans on Monday, while rookie Yaxel Lendeborg contributed 23 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. The Warriors sit second in the NBA in scoring at 120.4 points per game and win in 35% of the model’s simulations.
A Golden State victory trades at 31% on Polymarket.
Matchup History and Scoring Projections
Houston won two of three meetings against Golden State last season, with all three games decided by four points or fewer. The SportsLine model projects the Rockets to win by more than 6.5 points at home in 53% of simulations, noting that Houston has won five of six home games, whereas the Warriors have lost two of four on the road. Durant averaged 27 points across those three head-to-head matchups last season, while Curry averaged 21.5 points.
Regarding total scoring, the model projects the teams to surpass 221.5 points in 51.3% of simulations. On Polymarket, the over trades at 50% and the under trades at 51%.
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