Tarik Skubal is heading toward free agency this winter as a two-time Cy Young winner and one of the top pitchers in baseball. According to CBS Sports Headlines, industry expectations suggest the star left-hander is positioned to break the record for the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history in both total value and average annual value.
Current Pitcher Contract Records
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto currently holds the record for total value with the 12-year, $325 million contract he signed before the 2024 season. Behind Yamamoto are Gerrit Cole with a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees, Stephen Strasburg at seven years and $245 million with the Nationals, Jacob deGrom at five years and $185 million with the Rangers, Aaron Nola at seven years and $172 million with the Phillies, and Carlos Rodón at six years and $162 million with the Yankees. For average annual value, Shohei Ohtani leads all players at $70 million a year, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the record for pitchers at $43.33 million annually.
Expert Contract Predictions
CBS Sports experts shared their financial projections for Skubal’s upcoming deal despite ongoing collective bargaining agreement negotiations where owners may attempt to curb spending.
Mike Axisa projects a seven-year, $325.5 million contract with an average annual value of $46.5 million. This agreement would surpass the records set by Scherzer, Verlander, and Yamamoto, likely featuring multiple opt-outs negotiated by agent Scott Boras.
Dayn Perry forecasts an eight-year, $350 million deal that would establish new marks for total value and average annual value. Perry notes that despite past elbow concerns during his walk year, Skubal returned ahead of schedule and will benefit from a thin free agent class alongside an aggressive pre-lockout market.
Matt Snyder predicts an eight-year, $400 million contract that secures the guarantee and average annual value records for pitchers. Snyder points out that while teams are often cautious about long-term pitcher commitments due to injury risks, this deal could incorporate opt-outs following the third and fifth seasons.
