Table of Content
As the NFL season approaches its midway point, CBS Sports Headlines reports that analytics expert Stephen Oh has simulated the remaining regular-season and postseason games to project the 14-team playoff bracket and Super Bowl champion. While all 32 teams remain mathematically alive to make the postseason, the computer projections introduce major shifts in the division standings and playoff picture heading into Week 9.
Projected AFC Playoff Field
The AFC playoff race features significant movement following the Denver Broncos’ victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, which the computer model projects will propel Denver to a second consecutive AFC West title. The projected AFC playoff field consists of the Buffalo Bills (6-1) as the AFC East champion, the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) as the AFC South champion, the Broncos (6-2) as the AFC West champion, and the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) as the AFC North champion. The wild-card spots are projected to go to the Chiefs (5-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2), and New England Patriots (5-3), with the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns narrowly missing out.
If Denver claims the AFC West, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs would enter the playoffs as a wild-card team for the first time in his career. The Chiefs have never played a road game in the wild-card round with Mahomes at quarterback since he took over as the starter in 2018.
Projected NFC Playoff Field
The NFC North picture shifts again with the Chicago Bears claiming the top spot in the division following a dominant Monday night victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The projected NFC playoff field features the San Francisco 49ers (6-1) as the NFC West champion, the Bears (6-2) as the NFC North champion, the New York Giants (4-2-1) as the NFC East champion, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) as the NFC South champion. The projected wild-card teams are the Minnesota Vikings (6-1), Detroit Lions (5-2), and Seahawks (4-4), while the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams just miss the cut.
For the first time in league history, the projection envisions two teams winning their divisions with sub-.500 records: the Giants at 8-8-1 and the Buccaneers at 8-9. Tampa Bay rebounded from an 0-4 start by securing back-to-back blowout wins over division rivals Carolina and Atlanta. This scenario would leave both the Packers and Rams on the outside looking in despite finishing above the .500 mark.
Wild Card Round Projections
In the AFC wild-card matchups, the (2) Jaguars defeat the (7) Patriots 27-20 to get revenge for a previous postseason loss. The (3) Broncos edge the (6) Steelers 21-19 in a preview of their upcoming regular-season Black Friday meeting, and the (4) Bengals defeat the (5) Chiefs 26-25, extending Joe Burrow’s strong home record against Patrick Mahomes.
In the NFC, the (2) Bears defeat the (7) Seahawks 24-21 behind Ben Johnson’s offense. The (6) Lions secure a 29-23 victory over the (3) Giants to claim their first road playoff win of the Super Bowl era. Meanwhile, the (4) Buccaneers beat the (5) Vikings 21-17, capping a historic turnaround from an 0-4 start and wasting Minnesota’s 6-0 beginning.
Divisional Round and Conference Championships
During the divisional round, the (1) Bills defeat the (4) Bengals 34-24 after their bye week, and the (2) Jaguars edge the (3) Broncos 21-19 on a late field goal by Cam Little. The (1) 49ers defeat the (6) Lions 28-27 as Brock Purdy outduels Jared Goff, and the (2) Bears top the (4) Buccaneers 28-19 to reach their first NFC title game since 2010.
In the AFC Championship Game, the (1) Bills defeat the (2) Jaguars 28-24, sending Josh Allen to his first Super Bowl. In the NFC Championship Game, the (2) Bears overcome the (1) 49ers 26-24 on the road, aided by key defensive plays and the addition of Jeffery Simmons.
Super Bowl LXI Projection
In Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, the model projects the (1) Bills will defeat the (1) Bears 27-26. Josh Allen leads Buffalo to victory, and Joe Brady becomes the third coach this century to win a Super Bowl in his first year on the job, while DJ Moore records a strong performance against his former team.
According to the computer model, the Bears hold a 17.96% chance of winning the NFC, closely followed by the 49ers at 16.99%, the Lions at 15.92%, and the Vikings at 13.22%. For the Super Bowl title, Buffalo leads all teams with a 15.5% probability of winning it all.
