Baseball

National League Reliever of the Year: Matt Snyder’s Ballot

National League Reliever of the Year: Matt Snyder’s Ballot
Table of Content
  1. The Voting Process and Criteria
  2. Statistical Breakdown and Top Performers
  3. WAR and WPA Evaluations

Mason Miller of the Padres secured the 2026 National League Reliever of the Year award on Wednesday evening. As reported by CBS Sports Headlines, this marked the first-ever Baseball Writers’ Association of America award specifically for relief pitchers, prompting writer Matt Snyder to share the reasoning behind his ballot.

The Voting Process and Criteria

Snyder stated that he completely ignored win-loss records, calling them flawed statistics for individual players and especially inappropriate for judging relievers. He also avoided factoring in team performance since this is an individual accolade rather than a value-based MVP discussion. The core question for the ballot was simply identifying the best relief pitcher in the league.

When evaluating candidates, Snyder examined run prevention metrics like ERA, FIP, and xFIP, alongside WHIP to measure base runners kept off base. He also valued workload, strikeout ability to help defenses and escape jams, win probability added (WPA) to penalize blown saves and reward tough outs, and Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Additionally, an eye test was applied to determine which relievers felt the most imposing to opposing hitters.

Statistical Breakdown and Top Performers

For run prevention and limiting base runners, Miller led National League relievers in ERA at 1.67, alongside top marks in xERA, FIP, and xFIP. Jhoan Duran followed in second place across those same categories, with Yuki Matsui third, Brandyn Garcia fourth, and Abner Uribe fifth. Trevor Megill took third in FIP, while Mason Montgomery placed third in xFIP and Adrián Morejón fourth. Garcia led in WHIP, ahead of Megill and Miller, though Garcia’s workload was limited to 51.3 innings compared to 86 innings for Morejón and 70 innings for Miller.

In missing bats, Miller dominated with 129 strikeouts, producing a 16.6 K/9 rate and a 47.4 K%. Montgomery ranked second with a 37.7% strikeout rate, and Duran finished third at 35.6%.

When holding leads, Miller tied for the league lead in saves with Riley O’Brien, though O’Brien was excluded from consideration due to an ERA above 4.00. Miller converted 38 of 41 save opportunities, while Duran went 33 of 35. Megill recorded 30 saves and seven holds with three blown saves, Montgomery totaled 18 saves and nine holds with three blown saves, and Morejón had three saves, 28 holds, and five blown saves across numerous multi-inning outings.

WAR and WPA Evaluations

According to FanGraphs calculations, Miller led relievers in WAR by a wide margin at 3.7, followed by Duran at 2.9, Morejón at 2.8, and Megill at 2.5. Conversely, Baseball Reference metrics placed Duran first at 3.4, with Miller next at 3.1, Montgomery at 2.4, and Uribe at 2.3. In win probability added, Miller topped the list at 4.56, followed by Uribe at 3.49 and Morejón at 3.23.

Snyder’s final five-player ballot listed Mason Miller first for the Padres, Jhoan Duran second for the Phillies, Adrián Morejón third for the Padres, Trevor Megill fourth for the Brewers, and Mason Montgomery fifth for the Pirates. Uribe and Garcia narrowly missed the final cuts, with Garcia finishing seventh despite a stellar campaign.

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