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South Africa set Australia a target of 288 runs to win the third Test in Cape Town after a resilient batting performance on day four. The hosts were eventually bowled out for 387 in the final over, as Ryan Rickelton and Wiaan Mulder both notched brilliant centuries.
South Africa Fight Back on Day Four
Starting day four effectively on 40-4, South Africa batted extensively to transform a likely defeat into a realistic chance of a series victory. Mulder scored 115 as the last man out, while Rickelton contributed 101 to build a formidable total. According to CricViz analysis tool WinViz, the hosts hold a 54% chance of victory.
As Australia’s bowlers tired during the afternoon and evening sessions, the pitch appeared flat enough for scoring. Rickelton and Mulder capitalised to record their third and fourth Test centuries respectively. However, a collapse of 4-61 occurred late in the innings due to batter errors, featuring a run out of Rickelton, a pull shot by Marco Jansen to deep square leg, and another run out of Gerald Coetzee. Mulder and number eleven Kagiso Rabada then added 36 runs before the close to leave South Africa 251 runs ahead.
Pitch Conditions and Historical Precedent
Australia’s target requires the second-highest fourth-innings chase in the 62 previous Tests at Newlands. The highest chase on the ground serves as a strong omen for the tourists, who successfully chased 331 for a four-wicket win against the Proteas in 2002 behind Ricky Ponting’s unbeaten 100. Five other scores above 288 have been achieved in the fourth innings at Newlands, though all resulted in defeats or draws.
Pitch conditions are expected to play a major role on day five. The CricViz PitchViz rating reached 6.6 in the final session, marking the most difficult rating of the match. The ball began turning significantly more compared to the previous four days, as demonstrated when Nathan Lyon bowled Simon Harmer with a delivery that turned back sharply. Despite the increasing turn, South Africa’s false shot percentage dropped to 11% on day four from 18% on day three, and uneven bounce has not yet become a factor.
The Chase for the Top Ranking
The winner of the Test will finish the series at the top of the International Cricket Council’s Test rankings. Australia enters the final day with recent success in challenging chases, having secured pursuits of 282 and 279 since 2023, alongside a victory in Perth last year. This modern resilience contrasts with a difficult period between 2008 and 2019 when Australia failed in 14 out of 17 fourth-innings chases with targets between 200 and 350.
Opening batter Travis Head could play a decisive role for Australia, having previously scored a rapid 123 from 83 balls to chase down 205 against England in an Ashes Test. Harmer, who dismissed Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis, and Alex Carey in Australia’s first innings, will be central to South Africa’s bowling attack as Australia attempts to deliver under pressure.
