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Game 4 of the World Series features a matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Tuesday night. The Brewers enter the contest holding a 3-0 series lead, sitting on the cusp of securing their first title.
Pitching Matchup and Bullpen Strategy
Dustin May of the Brewers and Griffin Jax of the Tampa Bay Rays are expected to take the mound as starting pitchers, though neither is anticipated to pitch deep into the game. Both managers, Pat Murphy and Kevin Cash, are expected to rely heavily on their bullpens.
The 29-year-old May went 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA this season across time with Milwaukee and St. Louis. He has made four postseason appearances, including one start, pitching 8.0 innings with a 5.63 ERA and no decisions without exceeding three innings. May previously threw a scoreless inning in Game 2 against Tampa Bay. The Brewers rested top relievers Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill in Monday’s game, pointing toward a short leash for May. Ashby has pitched 15.2 scoreless innings with 17 strikeouts in the current playoffs.
The 31-year-old Jax posted an 8-10 record with a 3.53 ERA over 34 regular-season appearances, which included 23 starts. Jax has made two postseason appearances with one start, holding a 0-1 record and a 6.00 ERA. During the regular season, he pitched better at home, recording a 3.45 ERA and a .218 opponent batting average.
Series Context and Betting Odds
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as -139 road favorites, with the Over/Under for total runs set at 7, leaning heavily toward the Over. Milwaukee commands 64% of the betting tickets and 57% of the money. Entering Game 3, the Brewers were -750 and the Rays were +500, but following a 10-1 Milwaukee victory, the Brewers’ series price shifted to -5000 and Tampa Bay moved to +1500.
Milwaukee holds a 10-1 record in the playoffs and an eight-game winning streak, tying the 2004 Red Sox, 2005 White Sox, 2014 Royals, and 2019 Nationals for the longest single-postseason run. In Game 3, the Brewers scored eight runs with two outs in the fifth inning, setting a postseason record for most two-out runs in a single World Series inning.
Historically, only the 2004 Boston Red Sox have overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven MLB postseason series, rallying against the New York Yankees in the ALCS. In World Series history, no team has forced a Game 6 after falling behind 3-0.
MVP Race and Projections
Regarding World Series MVP odds, catcher William Contreras and outfielder Jackson Chourio lead the favorites at -110. Chourio recorded four hits in Game 3 at 22 years and 229 days old, becoming the youngest player to register four hits in a World Series game since Joe Garagiola in 1946. Ashby is listed as a +15000 longshot, while Junior Caminero holds the shortest odds for a Rays player at +1500.
Game 5 is scheduled for Wednesday at Tropicana Field, preceded by a travel day if necessary.
