The Milwaukee Brewers aim to secure a 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series when they face the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the 2026 World Series on Monday night. Milwaukee claimed both opening games at home, highlighted by a 5-4 comeback victory on Saturday. Left-hander Robert Gasser takes the mound for the Brewers, while Tampa Bay counters with former Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta.
Game Details and Odds
The matchup at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, is scheduled for a first pitch at 8 p.m. ET. According to CBS Sports Headlines, Tampa Bay enters as a -117 money-line favorite, meaning bettors must risk $118 to win $100, while Milwaukee sits at +102. The total over/under line is set at 7 runs.
Computer Model Predictions
A proven computer model from SportsLine, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has evaluated the matchup. Entering the World Series on a strong run of top-rated money-line picks, the model has generated specific projections for Game 3.
The model projects 8.5 combined runs, making the Over 7 at -110 odds the value side in 58% of simulations. This expectation is supported by formidable lineups on both sides and historical trends, noting that the Over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, four of Milwaukee’s last five games, and 7-5-1 in games started by Peralta for Tampa Bay.
Individual player projections from the model indicate that three Milwaukee players—Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich—will record 1.3 or more total bases. For Tampa Bay, five players are projected to reach 1.2 or more total bases: Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr., Jonathan Aranda, and Cedric Mullins.
Beyond the over/under pick, the model’s simulations have identified which side holds the value on the money line for the contest.
