The Sam Houston Bearkats and Missouri State Bears meet in a Conference USA matchup on Tuesday night at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Mo. Both teams enter the contest looking to bounce back from recent defeats, with Sam Houston dropping a 30-24 decision to New Mexico State and Missouri State falling 61-38 at Delaware.
Matchup Preview and Game Information
Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Sam Houston holds a 1-6 overall record and a 0-3 mark in conference play, suffering four consecutive losses and remaining winless in three road games this season. Missouri State stands at 2-5 overall and 1-2 in Conference USA, having dropped four of its last five contests while holding a 2-1 record on its home field in 2026.
According to the latest odds from CBS Sports Headlines, Missouri State opens as a 6-point favorite with the over/under set at 52.5 points. The money line lists Missouri State at -215 and Sam Houston at +185.
Model Predictions and Betting Trends
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every Football Bowl Subdivision game 10,000 times, has generated its projections for the matchup. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on all top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
For this game, the computer projects 51 combined points, pointing toward the Under at 51.5 points as a value option hitting 54% of the time. Recent trends support the projection, as two of the last three games for Sam Houston and three of the previous four for Missouri State have gone Under.
Individually, the model projects Missouri State quarterback Henry Belin IV to throw for more than 225 yards and two touchdowns. On the opposing side, Sam Houston quarterback Landyn Locke is projected to record 230 passing yards and a pair of scores.
Beyond the total, the model has identified a strong selection on the point spread, with one side hitting in well over 60% of simulations.
