New users can claim a $55 bonus at Kalshi by using promo code CBSSPORTS55 after completing $25 or more in trades on the prediction market app. The Milwaukee Brewers hold a 3-0 lead in the World Series following a 10-1 victory on Monday, putting them one win away from their first championship. Game 4 takes place at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Pitching Matchup and Bullpen Strength
Monday’s blowout win allowed Milwaukee to rest key bullpen pitchers such as Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill while Tampa Bay utilized six pitchers. The Milwaukee bullpen holds a 1.24 ERA across 11 postseason games, contributing to a 10-1 playoff record. The SportsLine Projection Model simulates the matchup and gives Milwaukee a 59% chance of winning, with a Brewers victory trading at $0.54 per share on Kalshi.
Tampa Bay returns to Tropicana Field aiming to stave off elimination, with Griffin Jax expected to start. Jax posted an 8-10 record with a 3.53 ERA during the regular season and holds a 6.00 ERA across two playoff appearances. The SportsLine model gives the Rays a 41% win probability, and a Tampa Bay victory is trading at $0.47 per share on Kalshi.
Scoring Projections and Kalshi Markets
Both clubs rely heavily on their bullpens, with Dustin May anticipated to start for Milwaukee after logging a 5.63 ERA over six playoff outings. Both rosters feature key power bats, including Junior Caminero for the Rays alongside Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers for the Brewers. The SportsLine model projects the teams to score more than 7 runs in 61.9% of its simulations.
Wagers on more than 7.5 total runs are priced at $0.45 per share on Kalshi, while fewer than 7.5 runs are listed at $0.56 per share. Users must ensure prediction markets are legal in their state and review terms and conditions before participating.
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